II. Indication

  1. Predicts prognosis in Acute Pancreatitis
  2. Initially derived from Alcoholic Pancreatitis
    1. Prognosis is better for other types of Pancreatitis

III. Criteria: Admission Risk Factors

  1. Age over 55 years old
  2. Blood Glucose >200
  3. Serum Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) >300
  4. Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST, SGOT) >250
  5. White Blood Cell Count >16,0000

IV. Criteria: At 48 hours Risk Factors

  1. Hematocrit falls >10%
  2. Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) increased >5 mg/dl
  3. Serum Calcium <8.0
  4. Arterial PO2 <60
  5. Base Deficit >4
  6. Estimated fluid sequestration >6L

V. Interpretation

  1. Risk factors <3: 1% mortality
  2. Risk factors 3-4: 15% mortality
  3. Risk factors 5-6: 40% mortality
  4. Risk factors >7: 100% mortality

VI. Efficacy

  1. Test Sensitivity for predicting poor outcome: 70%

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